Uticaj klimatskih promena na proizvodnju pšenice

Abstract

U ovoj studiji, analizirana je proizvodnja pšenice u dvadesetogodišnjem periodu (2001-2020. godina) u svetu i u Srbiji. Variranja visine prinosa zrna po jedinici površine u Srbiji poređene su sa količinom padavina u vegetacionom periodu pšenice. Kvantifikovanjem uticaja klimatskih promena na proizvodnju pšenice daje nam mogućnost da se kreiraju dugoročni planovi u poljoprivrednoj proizvodnji kako bi se održao visok i stabilan prinos zrna. Prosečan prinos zrna, za ispitivani period u svetu, iznosio je 3.112 kg ha-1 dok je u Srbiji bio veći za 26% i iznosio je 3.925 kg ha-1. I pored značajnih godišnjih variranja, trend povećanja prinosa pšenice u svetu bio je značajan. U 2020. godini prosečan prinos zrna u svetu je povećan za 23,5%, a u Srbiji za 34,6% u poređenju sa 2001. godinom. Analiza proizvodnje, kod svetski najvažnijih snabdevača pšenicom, beleži značajno povećanje prinosa po jedinici površine, kao i ukupnu proizvodnju.

This study analyzed wheat production in the twenty-year period (2001-2020) in the world and in Serbia. Variations in the yield of wheat grains per unit area in Serbia were compared with the amount of precipitation in the growing season. By quantifying the impact of climate change on wheat production, it gives us the opportunity to create long-term plans in agricultural production in order to maintain a high and stable grain yield. The average grain yield, for the examined period in the world, amounted to 3,112 kg ha-1, while in Serbia it was higher by 26% and amounted to 3,925 kg ha-1. Despite significant annual variations, the trend of increasing wheat yields in the world was significant. In 2020, the average grain yield in the world increased by 23.5%, and in Serbia by 34.6% compared to 2001. The analysis of production at the world's most important wheat suppliers records a significant increase in yield per unit area, as well as total production. The analysis of production at the world's most important wheat suppliers records a significant increase in yield per unit area, as well as total production.