Analysis and forecasting of profit by using simulation models for growing pea in conventional and organic plant production in Serbia

Abstract

Bean is the third most important food legume crop of the world after soybean and groundnuts; it provides an important source of dietary proteins, carbohydrates, minerals and fiber essential in human nutrition worldwide. A high, per capita bean consumption of 13 to 40 kg yr-1 was observed in developing countries. In EU developed countries, market of the organic products is growing in average 10 % per annum, but this growth has not been followed by production growth and this is the chance for Serbian products. Organic bean growing enables the producers a higher profit. Expenses in organic production are higher (2170 EUR/ha) than those in conventional bean production (1825 EUR/ha). However, net profit in the organic production was estimated to 1440 EUR/ha, while the profit in the conventional concept was 315 EUR/ha. Also, profitability rate and the economic efficiency coefficient had higher values when growing bean in organic concept.

Gajenje pasulja u skladu sa organskim principima omogućava proizvođačima veći profit u odnosu na konvencionalni sistem gajenja. Ispitivana i komparirana je proizvodnja pasulja u konvencionalnom i organskom sistemu gajenja metodama bazičnih ekonomskih parametara a za metodu prognoze korišćena je Monte Carlo simulacija na osnovu projektovanih prosečnih tržišnih cena po jedinici proizvoda. Troškovi u organskoj proizvodnji su veći (2170 EUR /ha) od troškova u konvencionalnoj proizvodnji pasulja (1745 EUR /ha). Međutim, ostvarena dobit u konceptu organske proizvodnje je iznosila 1402 EUR /ha, dok kod konvencionalnog koncepta je 955 EUR /ha. Takođe, stopa rentabilnosti poslovanja kao i koeficijent ekonomičnosti su imali veće izračunate vrednosti u gajenju pasulja po konceptu organske biljne proizvodnje. Simulacijom rasta cena na tržištu korišćenjem Monte Carlo simulacionog modela u konvencionalnoj proizvodnji figurira neto profit od 93.4 EUR /ha, dok je u organskoj veći i iznosi 348.16 EUR /ha.